Scott Barbour/Getty Images
A research note from Credit Suisse’s Sean Shepley on Friday morning had an interesting nugget on the UK’s upcoming referendum on whether to leave the European Union.
The massive investment bank expects the UK to stay in the EU. But that’s not all.
The researchers made an interesting assumption quoted here (emphasis ours): “Our view is that, contingent on the euro existing in 20 years, and the UK being in the EU (our central cases), the UK would be a euro member.“
That’s a pretty bold bet. Even back in 2000, when it looked like Tony Blair’s New Labour government might advocate UK membership of the euro and have a referendum on the issue, polls showed overwhelming. opposition.
For example, 54% of people in an Ipsos MORI poll thought joining the euro would involve giving up the UK’s identity, against just 36% that disagreed.
Only 32% thought membership would be good for the economy, while 51% disagreed. That was all before the euro crisis. The City of London and global financial institutions were much more supportive of the UK joining than the public were.
Since then the eurozone’s slapdash response to the financial crisis, its own debt dramas and incredibly sluggish recovery have only reinforced opposition to joining.
So not only is it a brave bet from Credit Suisse (since it’s actually very difficult to imagine coming true), it’s also precisely the sort of thing that the campaigners who want the UK to stay in the European Union don’t want to hear ahead of the referendum — support for the EU has been improving recently, but one of the most convincing arguments that the UK should leave is that the bloc constantly extends its influence into areas that most British people don’t want it to.
In fact, the idea that Britain would eventually have to join the euro would be a golden opportunity for the campaign to take the UK out of the EU.
NOW WATCH: Here’s how Floyd Mayweather spends his millions